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- CommentAuthorchumscrubber
- CommentTimeAug 4th 2008
Sunday Pokerstars tourney....
Middle position....KK. About 33,000 chips, with blinds at 1200/600. Open for 4xBB. Button raises, to 8xBB or so (he has about 45,000 chips). No one else in the pot. I call.
Flop comes Q 6 8, rainbow. I put in half the pot. Button goes all in. I call putting me all in. He has AA...turn and river are QQ....
Can you get away from this? Better way to handle? Reraise before the flop, and if another raise comes, you know where you stand? Would you do something different depending on whether your stack is larger than the villain?
(afterthoughts, but this didn't occur to me...but should it have? 1) relatively new to table, so unsure what this raise meant. 2) previous hand I had called a short stack all in with QQ and lost (so should I have assumed my table image was tight, and that would indicate the initial raise was a clear statement of strength)) -
- CommentAuthordozo5
- CommentTimeAug 4th 2008
More info needed...you say pokerstars tourney, but buy in and tourney are needed to really have an understanding of your general player. Also you should be going broke with KK to AA everytime here. I personally would just get it all in before the flop considering you have less than 30BB, which is a pretty good stack in most of these tournies but really you have KK.
If you're new to the table and don't know what his raise meant than it's likely that he doesn't think you're tight...just b/c you've only showed QQ doesn't mean a whole lot if you're only a few hands in at this table. With those stack sizes you're likely getting 4 bet with QQ+, AK and sometimes even JJ, depending on the buy in level of the tourney. -
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CommentAuthorareaman
- CommentTimeAug 4th 2008 edited
the min 3 bet pre is aces a lot....with that said. never fold here because it isnt always aces. if youre going to start folding KK to 3 bets please give me your screenname and schedule...do you want to play hu maybe?
if you 4 bet fold KK it would possibly be the worst fold of all time.
you have less than 30 blinds. you are never getting away from this. i wouldnt even recommend getting away from this if you had 100 blinds.
you got coolered, you got unlucky. if this is some $1-50 tournament, too bad, fire up another one, and in the next one hope you dont run KK into AA with less than 100 blinds. -
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CommentAuthorareaman
- CommentTimeAug 4th 2008 edited
just the thought of this is baffling, im sorry..when do you want to fold this hand? when exactly during this hand do you think you can get away from this? NO NO NO NO WE CAN NOT FOLD KINGS HERE EVER!
i dont care if johnny fucking chan comes out and min 4 bets cold.... -
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- CommentAuthorBVI
- CommentTimeAug 4th 2008 edited
If you think you should be getting away from hands like this ever, you probably shouldn't be 4xing it with blinds this big preflop anyway. But yeah, I echo most of what Areaman said...you really shouldn't be folding Kings with 30 blinds here unless you see a flop and it contains an ace or a really scary board and there's raising and re-raising before it even gets back to you.
With some of the outright baffling things you see online, folding Kings is usually a pretty bad idea. I saw someone put in the 4th raise all in with the A/6 of diamonds in the 11 am 20k guarentee the other day. I mean...in some higher buy-ins these kind of things aren't as prevelant, but you'd be surprised how big of a donkfest the 55 dollar 50k guarentee can be on that site.
If you open the action, there's a three bet...and a min-raise of that three-bet, or something super spooky like that, I could make a case for folding Kings in that spot.
Just variance, shrug it off. -
- CommentAuthorchumscrubber
- CommentTimeAug 5th 2008
Thanks, folks. This was the $215 1.5 mil guaranteed tourney... In hindsight you start to fantasize that you should have figured out that when he went all in on the flop, that was clear indication of no fear hand like pocket queens or aces (or kings for that matter). But you're right, I've seen weird things, so it was the correct thing to do. -
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CommentAuthorareaman
- CommentTimeAug 5th 2008 edited
meh, that sunday million field is huge and full of sattelite donks.
no way you can dump kings there ever. better luck next time. -
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CommentAuthorDodgingDonkeys
- CommentTimeAug 5th 2008
You have 27.5 BBs at the start of this hand. You smooth called the villains raise, commiting 9600 pre-flop. that's nearly a third of your stack. You bet half the pot, another 9600 on the flop. That's 2/3 of your stack. Now the villain raises you all-in. That's somewhere around 5 to 1 pot odds? The pot odds dictate that you have to win 17% of the time to break even and justify a call. Granted this is tournament play, and maybe you dont want to be making break even calls. Pokerstove calculates that if you are up against Aces, you have an 8.384% chance to win. So if you were 100% sure he had aces, your loasing margin is only 9%. We obvioulsy can't him on aces 100%.
So a tight range punched into pokerstove of sets, Kings, Aces, and Ace-Queen give us:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
27,720 games 0.005 secs 5,544,000 games/sec
Board: Qc 8d 6h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.379% 38.59% 01.79% 10698 495.00 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 59.621% 57.84% 01.79% 16032 495.00 { QQ+, 88, 66, AQs, AQo }
40% equity. Thats a clear call.
So by the numbers, its a call. But I think this hand demonstrates how we need a plan when we bet. All the money probably should have got in pre-flop. When the villain comes at you with a raise, you aren't deep enough to raise again and see where you are at. So when you just smooth call, what is the line you are going to take? What is your thinking? Are you looking for a reason to fold on the flop? You are after all OOP. If you bet half the pot and fold, your game is very exploitable, and you may be making a very bad fold.
So I probably shove my stack in pre-flop to the villain's raise for a couple of reasons.
1) I dont want to set myself up for a bad fold post-flop. I am OOP here, and im asking for trouble. I can't check hoping to keep the pot small, because a check may induce bluffs, and i can't fold to any action after I check the flop. If I smooth call the villain, am I done with the hand if an Ace hits the flop? If so, i gave too much value to QQ and JJ that he might be holding.
2) I want to get value from a range of hands he might 3-bet pre-flop with. He is on the button, which opens the range of hands he might be holding here. So if there is a good chance i can get a shove called by AK, AQ, QQ, JJ, then i am missing out on a ton of value by not shoving.
So I think in this example, you werent quite sure how you wanted to proceed in the hand. And were looking for ways to fold. With kings, and a 27.5 BB stack, you shouldnt be looking for reasons to fold. -
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- CommentAuthorchumscrubber
- CommentTimeAug 6th 2008
I think that's very good analysis....thanks. I suspected at least 1 ace holding there on the raise....I clearly thought that I would have to carefully weigh what to do if an Ace hit on the flop. Beyond that, my thinking was not very clear.
Gut reaction...I 4 bet the BB when I open online, so the great majority of times I only get called. A reraise on the 4 BB, at least in the middle stages of a tournament is rare, so you have to give the raiser some respect. I did not clearly think that, but that was a gut perception.
Also another gut perception I think I had working was this was on the tail of showing that I called an all in with QQ. I find that people give this a lot more subconscious respect than they should based on statistics alone. The evidence I use to support this: If you show down a very strong hand, and then open a pot on the next hand, no matter what you are holding, I observe that you will take down that next hand without a call a large percentage of the time, and a call or raise on this next hand is probably a very premium hand....I haven't kept stats, but it seems much higher than on a usual pot opener.
If an ace came on the flop, I probably would have checked, and, on the all in....not sure, I want to say I would have folded, but that is probably wishful thinking. If an ace had hit on a rainbow board, and I checked to him, he likely would have checked hoping I would catch up.... So in the end, I probably would end up putting all the chips in somewhere down the line.
But in the end, if I fold KK based on a reraise, especially with that chip stack, thinking I am against AA, and statistically that is 8/220 chance that another player at the table has aces, 1/220 that a specific player has aces, and 1/48400 that two specific players have KK and AA, then I am being frightened at my own shadow....it's going to happen sometimes...but that's the way it goes -
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CommentAuthorJohnnyX
- CommentTimeAug 7th 2008
27.5 BBs, KK. Go broke every time or get better at 2-outing people, and don't tell me that's not a poker skill. For some, it's their only poker skill. The only thing that could make folding this hand correct is if it's one of those specific tournament situations on the money bubble where you're supposed to fold every hand including AA until someone else busts. I have folded KK preflop only twice in my short poker career. Both were cash games. Both were deep-stacked situations. Both times I knew my opponent well enough that the only hand he could have was AA in that spot. Both times I was right (not a brag post). Both times I still didn't like it. You should have gotten it in preflop. As played, you should go broke every time.
Every time someone folds KK preflop, even if it's right, God kills a kitten. -
